Another Johnson

She called around midnight and immediately I knew something was up.  Something in her voice was a little off and the distinct, elongated silences indicated there was no clear agenda for the conversation.  You only call friends at midnight when you really need to talk… or you’re drunk.  I was a little put-off because we’d had a few arguments earlier in the day, but suggested we study/work together with the expectation that my proximity would push her over the edge.  Not 5 minutes after she got to my place the tears began to fall.

“I just wish I could connect with another person more easily.  I feel so alone.  I guess my expectations are too high.”

I can’t say she’s alone, at least in feeling this way.  Why is it so hard to find that perfect fit?  Is it all about compromise?  When do we settle?

“I think there are two options.  You accept you’ll search forever for that connection you really want while realizing you may never find it and/or it may not exist, or you lessen your requirements and settle for something that is kind of close.”

I note I only really see those two options but there may be more.  When we were both in college, I wrote a blog entry about settling - an extremely immature move that caused quite the upset with my now ex-girlfriend and put down one more stone in a long path of regrets.

“Why do I keep getting into relationships that are so bad for me…”

I can’t say I feel the same way, but I recognize what she’s getting at.

“I guess relationships are like keys.”

“What do you mean?”

“Well they’re all going to be bad until you find the right one and stop looking.”

I said that then because it just came out - but it really makes me sad to view things as a numbers game.  The fastest way to find those rogue car keys is to briefly scan a lot of likely areas in frantic aggravation.  The keys are almost always in clear sight and rarely require digging your way to the back of a closet.  So why do we spend months and years checking out each person when maybe a cursory once-over or maybe twice-over will likely do the trick?  Why do we keep scrambling to find something that we know has almost no chance of being there?

When people look back on history, it’s clear to see who the “bad guys” are.  It’s clear that slave owners were wrong and it seems ludicrous that anyone could believe otherwise.  It’s clear that women should be able to vote and that stodgy, fearful, and set-in-their-ways old men were wrong.  It’s clear for Christians to see that it was wrong for Jews to stone Jesus because he didn’t fit in to their neat pre-defined society.  So why can’t these very same people see that they’re the bad guys today?

Why can’t they burst outside of their bubbles to understand that just because they grew up thinking marriage was between a man and woman since they were 8 years old, that doesn’t make it true?  Why can’t they understand that equality has nothing to do with words they were told to believe in a book they once read?  Speaking of, how many of you religious zealots grew up reading more than one religious script and actually made a choice that was not based on your location and race?  Hmm?  Oh, none of you?

If I was a “bad guy” and  wasn’t capable of looking back on the past and understanding the value of equality and the tyranny of bigotry, I’d suggest that we pass a proposition banning all religions - maybe we’d finally have real peace.

Here are a few of the Status messages set in the first few friends I have on Facebook.  Mind you, every single one of them is straight.

“is exhausted from election results, a day of classes and ulpan, and a wedding. So happy about obama, so absolutely dumbfounded by bigotry in california.”

“is one big step forward for America, one big step back for California… :/.”

“is thank you america, but wtf california…”

“is excited with the return of a PROGRESSIVE leader to the White House, but mourns the LOSS of CIVIL LIBERTIES in the Golden State. we will keep on fighting!”

“thinks it was a beautiful night, but it will always be tarnished by Prop 8. People care more about chickens than human civil rights? Come on….”

“is like sharya proud of the nation but not so much of californians…one step back from where we were last night…=(.”

“is also feeling bittersweet. Great night. Sad Morning.”

“1. to thomas happy birthday , little bro! 2. hm…And to California, it’s not over . we’re just going to fight harder.”

“is upset about prop 8. What the helll, California?”

*EDIT*
A friend noted the following:
Douglas Rosenberg at 2:50pm November 5
Judging by the exit polls, I’m giving Prop 8 10 years max before it’s repealed by the electorate.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#CAI01p1

Well, I was right about Thursday until the market hit that pivotal 2-3 time period… then I was completely wrong!

Things look promisingly on the up side where the market closed.  Unless unfortunate events unfold this weekend, I’d say things are looking nicely on Monday.

I think the market will continue to fall today.  I saw no indication yesterday that buyers were returning to the market, as there was a continued selloff on moderate volume.

The market is up quite a bit during pre-trading, but I don’t think that will affect the overall trend.

More later… very tired.

I don’t maintain $25,000 in my trading account and so limit myself to only 3 trades a week as to not be flagged a “Pattern Day Trader” and required to have $25,000 available.  For this reason I won’t always be updating just before the bell… because it doesn’t apply to me!

As stated with the previous post, I think the selloff will continue though likely with less zeal.  I expect a lot of oscillation today.

I was doing some thinking this morning on which way I think the market is going to go… and I came to a mini-conclusion: it doesn’t know.

I think some people think they know, and I believe they will lead the rest of us.  I think there are 4 major groups of psychology battling it out this morning: A) those that shorted stock before the 900 point climb yesterday and were either squeezed out or are having a lot of hope in a reversal, B) those that bought into the radically rise yesterday, C) those that have been sitting on their hands while their net worth plummets and now think is a good time to recover some of what they lost, D) and those that have been sitting on their hands and believe now things are going to continue to rise and return to normal.  The question is which of these groups will dominate trading today.

I believe there are probably 2 prominent types of shorts in group A.  Group A1 shorted a long time ago because they foresaw an economic downturn, while group A2 shorted opportunistically during this fall.  Group A1 probably will not cover at this point because it’s likely they still believe in the reasons for the original short.  Group A2, which is probably not as sizable as group A1, will likely cover their positions within the first hour of trading if things continue to rise.

Group B is mostly opportunistic as well, and will probably be ruled by the opposing forces of fear and hope - hope the market doesn’t decline and fear that it won’t go up.  With the recent plummet so fresh in their minds, which are already probably prepared that this is a short-term trade, they will scare easily.

Groups C and D are mostly composed of average Americans - Sarah Palin’s Joe Six Pack (but with a job).  They probably don’t know much about the market, but are likely to be nearing retirement and scared/tired of constant turmoil in the stock market.  They are likely to watch the news and read the paper about the market religiously, and yet don’t do anything because of the pressing fear that they moment they sell their stock the market will turn around.  It’s also probably fresh in their minds that they did that very thing in the 2000 crash - capitulate right at the bottom.  I think this group will be the direction setters for the day.  I believe that their lead will set Group A2 and Group B, who are the most opportunistic groups, on their own self-acualizing courses.

So, who will win out?  Group C or Group D?

Imagine you bought AAPL stock when it shot through $80.  You saw it run up to $150 and pull back 25% of its value in a month, then saw it rocket off to $200!  Things are going great, not many people picked a stock that grew 150% in about a year.  Then, suddenly the stock plummets from $200 to $120 in just one month!  That’s 40% of “your money” “disappearing” in the blink of a … well month.  Over the next 3 months it climbs slowly back up to $200, and then right when it gets there, the market tanks and the stock is now back at $80.

The market just ran up in a one-day push that sent stocks like AAPL from $85 to $115 IN ONE DAY.  What would you do?  I think you’d sell - maybe today and maybe not today, but definitely by tomorrow.

::: Update @ 1045am :::

It looks like people did decide to sell today, and while not as solidly as last week, there is a lot of pain.  I shorted AAPL at around $114 (was it not obvious that was my plan? :p), and it just hit $107.50.  If you’re unaccustomed to shorting, that’s still a $6.50 gain per share.  As I postulated yesterday about 2-3 being a key time period, I believe it will also be very important today.  I’m going to be watching my position closely starting at 11am (2pm EST) and looking for any indication that buyers could rush in.  I think what is much more likely to happen is a major selloff by investors that currently hold positions and fear the giant and unpredictable rise or fall that may occur after the bell.

::: Update @ 1215pm :::

Just closed out my position for a 57% profit after comission.  The reason for the high % is because I often trade options instead of stock.

2008-10-14 AAPL Short

Very cool site: http://www.gwap.com/ that is used to collect data on images and music.  We’re thinking about using the same technique to gather information about resumes for FD Career.  Our current algorithm for calculating a person’s level is fairly good at estimating how valuable a person’s previous experiences are, but it fails to account for differences in quality of experience.  Working at the front desk of Goldman Sachs will rank the same as working as an analyst for the same company.  This simply will not do, and FD will not let another day go by with this injustice unaccounted for.

I did a bit of brainstorming today and 3 games are planned, now we have to test their addiction forming power.  Hopefully it’s high!

I closed my LAMR option on Friday (with a Limit order at the market’s open, unfortunately) for a 50% profit.  The market continued to fall that day, as predicted, but the lack of enthusiasm rubs me the wrong way!

I don’t think this market is going to fall all the way down to my 7800 level.  It’s at 8400ish right now, and I’m really unsure what tomorrow will bring.  I’ll post thoughts in the morning on it after the first 15 minutes of the day!

:::Update @ 1030am:::

Things jumped up radically this morning… but I’m still unsure of the strength.  Things were quickly sold off immediately at the open (indicating a vote of no confidence in the rise) but slowly climbed back up on low volume.  I’m looking to see what happens from 2-3pm EST today.  I feel it could be very interesting.

:::Update @ 115pm:::

Yep.  450 point jump starting at 230pm.

The stock market has been going nuts lately - yet still seems rather predictable.

I want to try and keep tabs on my thoughts in order to see if I’m sometimes correct, or if I like to just pretend I am!

Barring any new news that may affect the economy tomorrow morning, the markets plunge today after a slight (predictable) rise yesterday seems to indicate that tomorrow (Friday the 10th) things will continue to decline a few hundred points.  I don’t expect the fall to be as prominent as today, but investors seem to be hesitant to take any action since the market hung pretty solid for the majority of the day and only fell as day-trading position closeouts caused a freefall.  There is nothing holding this market up except for the belief that it CAN’T go down past a certain point.  I don’t know what that level is, but it’s probably, if I had to pick a point, 7800 on the DJIA.  I believe there is a huge psychological barrier to trading below that point (since slightly below that is where the bubble ceased to continue bursting) and huge numbers of people will rush to buy.

I have a short position in LAMR, but I expect to close it out tomorrow afternoon.

That’s the theme of the week.

With the current economic downturn (dare we breathe recession yet or is it STILL too early to speak such a preposterous thought), Future Delivery has decided to focus on keeping our heads above water by shifting our focus a bit more towards immediate revenue.  Unfortunately, making money isn’t as easy as deciding we want to make money… but it damn well should be!

Our main source of income is our consulting department named Site Vitamin, which aims to help businesses develop their brands and make a more prominent name for themselves on the internet.  It’s going well and we’ve had some great clients including Keiko Agena’s Mango Pop and IntergifCorp.

Jun and I have spent the last few days thinking up lots of new ideas, from iPhone apps that tell you where the closest open parking spot is to radios embedded into surfboards.  Ideas are great, but action is something entirely different.  It’s hard to have the faith, dedication, and overall perseverance to stick with an idea from birth to actualization.

I’m getting pretty restless for innovation and I’m thinking about making an online MMORPG centered around the same basic principle as Heroes the TV show.  You don’t choose a class or a superpower, just a name and a profession.  Maybe you’ll get a super-power, maybe not!  I’d like the game to be kind of like real-life, where reporters can post stories on the front-page and government officials can listen in to intergame communication.  I think it would be really fun - both to build and play.

I’m struggling a lot with direction.  It’s hard to know what you want from life; and once you find out it’s equally hard to abstract day-to-day decisions in order to maintain the path towards your goal.

I’m new to this blogging thing and I promise each post will get more and more interesting until it’s enjoyable to read!